Portfolio Stress Test
WINS stress on the bets, GENOMIA on the dependencies, SiliconAIR on the hardware exposure. Priced to the scale of the portfolio, not a single flat number.
Why this engagement exists
Capital commits to strategic bets without knowing how they hold under adverse scenarios. Supply-chain and organizational exposure stay hidden until a disruption forces the decision — at which point the bet, the dependencies, and the hardware exposure all fail together.
What it looks like in your organization
- Investment theses are validated on upside scenarios only.
- Portfolio companies’ organizational dependencies and key-person risk are never mapped.
- Hardware and supply-chain exposure is unknown until a disruption hits.
- Stress testing is a spreadsheet exercise, not a simulation of real failure modes.
What we do and how it works
We stress the bets you name. GENOMIA sizes the organization and dependency graph behind each bet. SiliconAIR covers the hardware exposure in scope. WINS stress-tests the decision nodes under adverse futures — facilitation is in the fee, compute is estimated then billed on actuals. The price tracks the scale of the portfolio, because a single bet and a fund are not the same engagement.
The engagement includes
- Bet and portfolio scoping
- GENOMIA organizational and dependency mapping
- SiliconAIR hardware exposure coverage for systems in scope
- WINS stress scenarios on the decision nodes
- Options, critical-node map, and playbooks for the IC or board
What you take away
Every deliverable is named, formatted, and tied to the outcome it enables. Nothing ships as a deck with no use.
Stress-tested strategic options
Options analysisEach bet tested under adverse scenarios with failure modes and break points identified.
Capital commits against tested futures — or does not commit, which is also a win.
Dependency and critical-node map
Dependency mapThe organizational, supply-chain, and hardware nodes each bet depends on, with criticality flagged.
You know exactly where each bet breaks when the environment turns.
Proactive and reactive playbooks
PlaybooksPre-written responses for the failure modes the stress test surfaced.
When stress becomes reality, the response is rehearsed rather than improvised.
Shared operating picture
Operating pictureOne frame across the investment committee: the bets, the exposure, the responses.
IC and board discussions run from the same evidence instead of competing intuitions.
How this engagement runs
Name the bets
Week 1A single decision, a fund, or a supply chain — scoped explicitly. The portfolio scale sets the GENOMIA, SiliconAIR, and WINS units.
A priced scope that matches what is actually being stress-tested.
Map the structure
Weeks 1–3GENOMIA maps the organization and dependency graph behind each bet; SiliconAIR covers hardware-bound exposure in scope.
The structure behind each bet is visible, including the parts nobody was tracking.
Stress the futures
Weeks 2–4WINS runs the decision nodes under adverse scenarios. Compute is estimated at configuration and billed on actuals.
Each bet has a tested answer to “what happens when this goes wrong?”
Hand over the picture
Weeks 4–5Options, critical nodes, and playbooks are assembled into a package an IC or board can use, with a readout and handoff.
The investment committee holds a decision-grade stress picture, not a risk memo.
How the fee is built
The engagement fee moves on three multipliers — sensitivity, involvement, and organization type — and the platform units the work consumes are their own lines. Nothing is hidden inside a flat number.
Sensitivity
×0.90 – ×1.30 on the engagement feeSensitivity sets the handling envelope around the whole engagement: how data moves, where evidence lives, who can touch it, and what containment we must maintain. Higher sensitivity means cleared handling, segregated evidence, and slower, more deliberate operations — real cost that a flat fee would hide.
Open information. Standard handling, no containment overhead.
Proprietary business information. NDA-grade handling and controlled evidence storage.
Compliance-bound data. Framework controls and audit-ready evidence handling shape the work.
Defense-grade pathways. Cleared handling, boundary containment, and evidence segregation inside your perimeter.
Involvement
×0.85 – ×1.35 on the engagement feeInvolvement is how much Multipolar operator time is on the hook. Counsel at checkpoints is a different commitment than embedded delivery inside your team, your systems, and your cadence. The multiplier tracks senior hours actually committed — not a markup.
We advise and interpret; your team executes. Senior counsel at defined checkpoints.
We run the engagement end to end, with your stakeholders at the decision points.
Embedded delivery. Our operators work inside your team until the outcome is actually in place.
Organization type
×0.85 – ×1.25 on the engagement feeThe same technical work lands differently depending on who is buying it. Federal and defense engagements carry procurement, compliance, security review, and stakeholder alignment that a mid-market engagement does not. The multiplier prices the coordination and accountability surface, not the analysis.
Fewer stakeholders, faster decisions, lighter coordination overhead.
The baseline: standard commercial engagement surface.
Public-sector procurement and multi-agency stakeholder surface.
Investment-platform cadence: deal-driven timelines and IC audiences.
Joint-delivery and enablement motions with partner delivery teams.
Assurance functions: evidence standards and underwriting audiences.
Federal procurement, compliance crosswalks, and multi-office alignment.
Mission-critical review, security handling, and acquisition-process alignment.
Scope & scale of platform units
The largest component of most totalsEvery engagement consumes platform units — CYBAIR workloads, AIR organization bands, GENOMIA twins, WINS scenarios, SiliconAIR systems. Units track your estate, not our appetite for flat pricing: an 8-workload assessment and a 50-workload assessment are different engagements and are priced as such. You set the scope in the configurator; the total moves with it, and nothing is quietly under-scoped to fit a number.
Simulation compute
Estimated until configured · billed on actualsWINS simulations carry real compute costs that scale with scenario count, branching depth, and campaign length. A focused single-scenario game and a sustained multi-agent campaign are orders of magnitude apart. Facilitation and after-action are in the fee; compute is estimated once the game is configured, then billed on actuals — you pay for what actually runs, never a padded average.
Platform units in this engagement
Units track your estate, not our appetite for flat pricing. You set the scope; the total moves with it. Each unit below is consumed by this engagement and billed as its own line.
The organizational twin: people, skills, systems, dependencies, and projects modeled as a living graph.
Headcount or agency count sets the size band; structural complexity multiplies it. Multi-system, contested, or mission-critical environments cost more to model because they are more to model.
The simulation campaign: scenario families, adjudication, facilitation, and after-action.
How many scenario families the decision needs and whether the game is a focused exercise or a sustained campaign. Compute is estimated after configuration and billed on actuals.
Each hardware-bound system profiled for trust, provenance, and silicon posture — the hardware dimension of CYBAIR.
The number of systems you nominate for assessment. This is posture on systems you run or plan to run — not Phase 0 chip-program scoping.
What the engagement fee covers
- Scoping, workshops, and interpretation
- Every deliverable listed on this page
- Cross-framework mapping where the package includes compliance
- Executive translation — board, program-office, or IC language
- Handoff and a defensible next-step recommendation
What it does not cover
- Platform units consumed by the work (shown as their own lines)
- WINS simulation compute (estimated, then billed on actuals)
Frequently asked questions
Either. We stress-test the strategic bets you scope — one decision, a fund, or a supply chain. The units scale with what you put in scope.
Ready to brief us on the Portfolio Stress Test?
We choose who we work with and confirm scope, capacity, and final pricing in the briefing.