Wargaming & Scenario Simulation
WINS games on your actual decision nodes. Facilitation is the engagement; compute is estimated, then billed on actuals.
Why this engagement exists
Strategy is rehearsed in workshops, not simulations. When the environment moves — a competitor, a regime change, a supply shock — the organization improvises, because the decision was never tested against branching futures before it had to be made.
What it looks like in your organization
- Major decisions are made from best-case assumptions that nobody has tested.
- Scenario planning is a whiteboard exercise with no branching and no consequences.
- When the environment moves, leadership convenes a crisis meeting instead of running a rehearsed response.
- The organization has no shared picture of what happens under each plausible future.
What we do and how it works
We configure WINS on your actual decision nodes — market, alliance, capital, industrial policy — and run the futures with your people in the room. Facilitation and after-action are the engagement. Compute is estimated once the scenario is configured, then billed on actuals. You leave with decision paths and playbooks, not a workshop summary.
The engagement includes
- Decision framing: the actual choice and its consequences
- WINS scenario configuration on your decision nodes
- Facilitated game sessions with your senior players
- After-action analysis with consequence mapping
- Decision paths and playbooks for each tested future
What you take away
Every deliverable is named, formatted, and tied to the outcome it enables. Nothing ships as a deck with no use.
Configured WINS scenarios on your decision nodes
Scenario configurationThe decision framed and configured in WINS with the scenario families that matter to it.
The game tests your actual decision, not a generic scenario.
Simulation results and consequence map
Results + consequence mapWhat happens under each branch: second- and third-order consequences mapped per option.
Leadership sees the downstream of each choice before committing.
Decision paths and playbooks
PlaybooksProactive and reactive paths per tested future, written as executable sequences.
When the environment moves, the response is rehearsed, not improvised.
Shared operating picture
Operating pictureOne frame across leadership: the decision, the futures, the agreed responses.
Future strategy conversations run from the same map.
How this engagement runs
Frame the decision
Week 1The actual choice under analysis is framed with consequences attached. What counts as an answer is agreed before configuration.
A decision worth simulating, precisely stated.
Configure the game
Weeks 1–2WINS is configured on the decision nodes. Compute is estimated at this point — you approve it before games run.
A configured game with an approved compute budget.
Run the futures
Weeks 2–3Facilitated sessions with your senior players. The quality of the game tracks the quality of the players in the room.
Tested consequences for each option under each branch.
Close with playbooks
Weeks 3–4After-action analysis turns results into decision paths and playbooks, with guidance for continued WINS use.
A rehearsed response set and the ability to run future games.
How the fee is built
The engagement fee moves on three multipliers — sensitivity, involvement, and organization type — and the platform units the work consumes are their own lines. Nothing is hidden inside a flat number.
Sensitivity
×0.90 – ×1.30 on the engagement feeSensitivity sets the handling envelope around the whole engagement: how data moves, where evidence lives, who can touch it, and what containment we must maintain. Higher sensitivity means cleared handling, segregated evidence, and slower, more deliberate operations — real cost that a flat fee would hide.
Open information. Standard handling, no containment overhead.
Proprietary business information. NDA-grade handling and controlled evidence storage.
Compliance-bound data. Framework controls and audit-ready evidence handling shape the work.
Defense-grade pathways. Cleared handling, boundary containment, and evidence segregation inside your perimeter.
Involvement
×0.85 – ×1.35 on the engagement feeInvolvement is how much Multipolar operator time is on the hook. Counsel at checkpoints is a different commitment than embedded delivery inside your team, your systems, and your cadence. The multiplier tracks senior hours actually committed — not a markup.
We advise and interpret; your team executes. Senior counsel at defined checkpoints.
We run the engagement end to end, with your stakeholders at the decision points.
Embedded delivery. Our operators work inside your team until the outcome is actually in place.
Organization type
×0.85 – ×1.25 on the engagement feeThe same technical work lands differently depending on who is buying it. Federal and defense engagements carry procurement, compliance, security review, and stakeholder alignment that a mid-market engagement does not. The multiplier prices the coordination and accountability surface, not the analysis.
Fewer stakeholders, faster decisions, lighter coordination overhead.
The baseline: standard commercial engagement surface.
Public-sector procurement and multi-agency stakeholder surface.
Investment-platform cadence: deal-driven timelines and IC audiences.
Joint-delivery and enablement motions with partner delivery teams.
Assurance functions: evidence standards and underwriting audiences.
Federal procurement, compliance crosswalks, and multi-office alignment.
Mission-critical review, security handling, and acquisition-process alignment.
Scope & scale of platform units
The largest component of most totalsEvery engagement consumes platform units — CYBAIR workloads, AIR organization bands, GENOMIA twins, WINS scenarios, SiliconAIR systems. Units track your estate, not our appetite for flat pricing: an 8-workload assessment and a 50-workload assessment are different engagements and are priced as such. You set the scope in the configurator; the total moves with it, and nothing is quietly under-scoped to fit a number.
Simulation compute
Estimated until configured · billed on actualsWINS simulations carry real compute costs that scale with scenario count, branching depth, and campaign length. A focused single-scenario game and a sustained multi-agent campaign are orders of magnitude apart. Facilitation and after-action are in the fee; compute is estimated once the game is configured, then billed on actuals — you pay for what actually runs, never a padded average.
Platform units in this engagement
Units track your estate, not our appetite for flat pricing. You set the scope; the total moves with it. Each unit below is consumed by this engagement and billed as its own line.
The simulation campaign: scenario families, adjudication, facilitation, and after-action.
How many scenario families the decision needs and whether the game is a focused exercise or a sustained campaign. Compute is estimated after configuration and billed on actuals.
What the engagement fee covers
- Scoping, workshops, and interpretation
- Every deliverable listed on this page
- Cross-framework mapping where the package includes compliance
- Executive translation — board, program-office, or IC language
- Handoff and a defensible next-step recommendation
What it does not cover
- Platform units consumed by the work (shown as their own lines)
- WINS simulation compute (estimated, then billed on actuals)
Frequently asked questions
You do. Facilitation and after-action are the engagement. Compute is estimated once the scenario is configured, then billed on actuals — you approve the estimate before games run.
Ready to brief us on the Wargaming & Scenario Simulation?
We choose who we work with and confirm scope, capacity, and final pricing in the briefing.